Sunday, April 23, 2017

Louise Mensch is now doing more harm than good.

https://twitter.com/louisemensch/status/856281905913896960
Hopefully the link above works. Please read the tweet before reading the rest of this blog.

Did you read the tweet and the blog liked? It has to be one of the most convoluted things I have seen concerning Russia's hacking of the 2016 United States Presidential election to date. Let us look at it logically.
Did Trump take Russian laundered money to pay Russian cyber assets to hack the US election, DNC and voter data base? Why would he need to do this if it was a Russian planned and coordinated operation? Does it make sense for Putin to launder money give it to Donald Trump who then goes and uses the same money to pay Russian hackers? If they are located in the United States that maybe the case but most of the hacking can be traced back to operations in Russia. Russia could pay their own assets and not have to worry about a money trail that could be traced back to them. And why would they take the chance on using Donald Trump paying their operatives in the US with laundered money when it would be obvious to look there if the scheme was uncovered? Russia would be recklessly risking established assets that could be used later. Any Russian assets working in the US would already have away to receive financing from Russia without having to use Trump. When you look at the story it doesn't add up logically. Trump may have received money to secure hacking services in the US for his own gain but I doubt it was to pay Russian hackers. If anything Trump used the money to get compromising data on people in his own party, leverage. But to think Trump had to get money from Russia to pay Russian cyber assets is like, pardon my language here, going around your asshole to get to your elbow.
Louise Mensch has put out some interesting information in the past but now it seems like she is passing along any Trump-Russia conspiracy theory that comes her way. I will say it is not good because it works to muddy the waters and makes it harder to see the big picture. If you look at leads and information as a dot and then you start from the beginning and graph each dot by weight of likely hood they should stack up one on top of the other or pretty close to it. While you do this you will find some will be too light or heavy and will be wide right or left of the stack, these are called wild points, outliers, or statistical anomalies. If you get too many of these Wild points intohe mix then confidence of the solution goes down. It is that solution which is the big picture that will provide everything necessary to form a case for or against impeachment or criminal charges. Of course the Intelligence community knows this and they weed out the wild points but the General public will see these wild points and form there opinions which will influence their outlook on the business. Some may be frustrated and want to just get on with things and try to pressure officials to drop the matter, we cannot let this happen. Even when informing the public care should be taken to stack the dots and connect them since that is truth.
I have speculated on what I think went on with Trump and Russia based on my experience, observations, and the information that has come from the intelligence community. I have no backdoor channel to the intelligence community, I go by the reliability of the source and probability. I also know that no matter how much you want to that you cannot fit a square peg in a round hole so you don't try.
There are many variables at play in this mess so there is not going to be a cut and dry answer anytime soon. We need to focus, stick to facts, weed out the wild points and keep the water clear so we can see the big picture otherwise we will get lost and never find the truth.

You can follow me on twitter. @ceparmele